LEAF columnist

Oct. 29, 2003

 

I'm back. Sorry Nick, sorry Eric, but I gave it some thought and decided that the pain this column puts you through is just too valuable.

 

If you jackasses (that's directed at the whole league, not just our two ultimate jackasses) have learned anything this year, it's that the glory doesn't last long. The smoke and mirrors that Rick and Nick (sounds like a gay crime fighting duo) have been using will unravel soon, and the bad luck that has plagued Dave all year long is about to turn itself around. This is fantasy, folks, but one element of our fictional existence does hold true to its NFL counterpart - PARITY.

 

Balance is about to define our league, and the turning of the tide happens this week... And you heard it here first!

Guaranteed Trend Change 1 - Rick's Downfall - It all starts this week, as Rick experiences life without Priest Holmes. Imagine having to start Michael Pittman and Shawn Bryson every week. It could happen. When Dick Vermeil isn't crying, he's over-using Priest Holmes. Last year, the workload caught up to Holmes and his body gave out. Fortunately for Rick, it happened with only two regular season games to go. If it happens sooner, Rick will be down for the count. Rick will argue that the Chiefs are starting to feature Dante Hall and Tony Gonzalez more often. That may be, but Holmes is the workhorse, and The Butcher Block expects that horse to be out to pasture by Week 12.

Guaranteed Trend Change 2 - Dave's Resurgence - With a lowly 494 total points, Dave's Bullies are the ones being shoved around these days. Marshall Faulk is back in the saddle, and Dave's reluctance to fold his hand will pay off with big dividends. Dave enters phase two of the season with two of the NFL's best running backs (Faulk and Taylor), two top receivers (McCardell and Coles), a dominant defense (Carolina), and a high-scoring kicker on a reborn team (Akers). If Byron Leftwich offers any consistency, Dave's team will have a strong second half. If you trust The Butcher Block's math, estimating that Dave can gain about 30 points a week on the leaders, the Brickyard Bullies will finish in Second Place by year's end. Congratulations Dave.

Guaranteed Trend Change 3 - A Gang Green Leaf Bowl Championship - With 559 total points, Brandan is wallowing in the league's soupy, stinky quagmire of mediocrity. Despite his woes, he has managed his head-to-head match ups extremely well, and is currently tied with Mr. Nick for first place in the Rest of the World Division. Gang Green's 6-2 record, and .750 winning percentage should not be taken lightly. The Saints are playing better football these days; and where the Saints go marching, Brandan McAnally is sure to follow. The Aaron Brooks to Joe Horn match up will account for 40 points per week. Add another 20 for Ricky Williams, and another 40 from Travis Henry and Santana Moss (after Brandan makes two turning point trades with Grandpa's Meat), and this team will average 100 points per week. The end result, according to the research team at Butcher Block Headquarters, will be a Leaf Bowl championship in Cinderella-Story style. (Brandan, give me a call about those trades... you can't win with Onterrio Smith and Todd Pinkston in the lineup).

Guaranteed Trend Change 4 - Nick and Steve Make Amends - Did Steve go too far in his criticisms of Nick's team last week? With a little help from the Rosetta Stone, it appears that if Steve doesn't ease up, Nick will soon "go postal," forcing Karin to raise the surviving members of the Seeber family on her own. While that may be in Karin's best interest, Steve will have to smooth things over if he wants to see his team finish out this disappointing season. With that in mind, Nick and Steve will team up to covertly create a super team. A clever series of trades, designed to mask the collusion, will put Nick in the driver's seat for good; and Steve will get a healthy cut of the winnings. Blinded by the vanilla catch-phrase "I just put in the lineup and hope for the best..." the league's stragglers will be none the wiser.

Guaranteed Trend Change 5 - A Run From the Pez - (for clarification purposes, that's "run," not "runs") - Bruce is wisely starting Donovan McNabb against the Falcons defense this week. And when McNabb posts his first outstanding fantasy finish of the year, the illusion of Eagle greatness will return for the homers in our league. This will allow Bruce to trade McNabb for a viable running back to pair up with Garrison Hearst. As a result, The Pez can start Kitna (so far, one of the best fantasy QBs of the year), Hearst, Tiki Barber (after his trade with Steve), Isaac Bruce, and Marvin Harrison every week. That's tough to beat, and it will result Bruce winning the Lititz Division and passing Rick in overall points by Week 14.

Guaranteed Trend Change 6 - Changing of the Guard in the Ephrata Division - The Turd Burglars' head-to-head dominance ended when he accidentally started a bye-week kicker. And the lady in waiting is Andy "Glazed" Fasnacht. Nothing may be more telling than the week 8 results, when Andy finished with 100 points, and Todd managed only 76. The desperation was further illustrated by Todd's frantic posting of the Marc Bulger fire sale on the league message board. Fortunately, the league is too smart, and will let Todd sit on two top QBs (Bulger and Favre) while the rest of his team suffers. Meanwhile, Andy will be starting the likes of Culpepper/Brad Johnson/Chad Pennington, Tomlinson/Shipp/Duckett/Green, Chris Chambers/Rod Smith, and the Eagles Defense (about to get better, much to Kilhefner's dissatisfaction). The Butcher Block's take: Andy wins the Ephrata Division, but loses to Gang Green in the Leaf Bowl.

As stated above, some trends are obvious and easy to identify. Based on the accuracy of past claims in the Butcher Block, the prophecies stated above are virtually fact. Meanwhile, due to stubbornness (or pure stupidity), some negative trends are destined to remain unchanged. As a result, this fantasy season is doomed for a select few.

Doomed - Fighting Goobers - His downfall is his reluctance to trade. The longer he sticks with Tommy Maddox, the further Tom's squad will sink. There is a lot of hope invested in Michael Vick, but Vick won't see any significant playing time until December. By then, it will be too late. In addition, Charlie Garner is playing for a Raiders team that no longer has confidence in its coach, Clinton Portis will be the victim of a QB-less offense, and Hines Ward will fail with Maddox. Randy Moss is carrying this team, but is nothing more than a band-aid on a gaping wound. Unless Itula Mili can score two touchdowns every week, Tom has two choices as he enters the season's second half: make a trade, or fade into obscurity.

Doomed - Keith is the victim of unpredictable quarterbacking. He's got Ramsey in this week, which means Brady will have a big game. It's a vicious cycle and The Butcher Block sees no light at the end of this agonizing tunnel. Add to the mix that Edgerrin James is a bust, Stephen Davis is being overused, Moe Williams is about to lose his starting job, Warrick Dunn is underused, who to start between Ike Hilliard and Reggie Wayne will be a frustrating challenge, and the Dallas Cowboys are about to return to their true form. Torry Holt is the one bright spot. Unfortunately, that won't be enough; unless, of course, he gives Steve a call with trade offer for Matt Hasselbeck.

Doomed - Troy's Raiders - Peyton Manning and Shaun Alexander are good for 40 points a week. Unfortunately, the rest of his team should account for another 10. Tyrone Wheatley? There has to be someone on the waiver wire better than that. The rest of this case study of overrated or worthless players includes the likes of David Boston, Travis Taylor, and Antowain Smith. Only a trade with Steve can save this squad.

Doomed - I always save the best for last. ERIC KILHEFNER and his Griese-led Rough Housers. Eric's team is mainly fueled by anger; and his hatred for Grandpa's Meat will result in a big bankroll with nothing to show for it. This guy is pumping lots of money into the league, and ironically a good portion of the funding will eventually find its way into the pocket of his nemeses, Grandpa's Meat. His rotating QB problems define his season, and his inability to trade Eric Moulds for a top running back will be his demise. The league is too smart to fall for the sales pitch, as Moulds has only one touchdown as we enter the ninth week of the season. This ship is sinking fast.

There you have it, my fellow fantasy managers, a blueprint for the season's second half, courtesy of The Butcher Block. Enjoy your fates.

 

*****

Steve Seeber is the owner of Grandpa's Meat. "The Butcher Shop" will appear every three weeks.

Next week: Rick Reitz provides his analysis of Week 9 in this space.

In two weeks: Keith Schweigert chimes in with his thoughts on the league and Week 10.

This column will be written on alternating weeks by Keith, Steve and Rick.

 

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