The LEAF Pile, Week 15: Donuts vs. Chachi
 
 
 
by Rick Reitz
LEAF columnist
Dec. 10, 2003
 
From the crumbs of the deep frier has risen a formidable foe in rookie owner Andrew Horton Fasnacht's surging and LEAF Bowl-bound Glazed Fasnachts.

Around mid-season, Andy was flirting with disaster. Daunte Culpepper was injured, LaDanian Tomlinson was inconsistent, William Green was high and getting stabbed by his girlfriend, and his receivers were no-shows.

But he used a combination of sitting tight, trading his depth to stregthen other position, and maximizing his opportunities while he was near the bottom of the free agent pool.

Result: He was rewarded for not giving up on Culpepper or Tomlinson. He pulled off a great trade in sacrificing Brad Johnson to get Tony Gonzalez. And most importantly, he grabbed flotsam like the Eagles Defense, Marcel Shipp, Thomas Jones and Morten Andersen, and used them all to his benefit.

So while he's still only in 6th place overall, he has a real chance at taking home the LEAF Super Bowl IV trophy this weekend, as he squares off against 2002 overall champ Rick. (Full disclosure: I am 2002 overall champ Rick.)

It wasn't until the final week of the regular season that Andy qualified for the Wild Card, but he was quickly the team no one wanted to play, owing to his strong play week in and week out.

Curiously, the top two seeds in the playoffs, Todd and Nick, were knocked off last week, casting a shadow of doubt upon the myth that homefield advantage plays a role in the playoffs.

What we now have is a very evenly matched LEAF Super Bowl. Here's how it looks:

Quarterback:

Daunte Culpepper vs. Trent Green.

Edge: Culpepper

Analysis: As fate would have it, both QBs go head-to-head in Saturday's Vikings-Chiefs matchup. Give Culpepper the slight edge against a porous Chiefs defense, but it seems likely that both QBs will put up a fair amount of points. Still, Green was widely considered Rick's weak point early in the season when Kurt Warner was benched. Today Green is one of the most productive QBs in the league.

Running backs:

LaDainian Tomlinson and Thomas Jones vs. Priest Holmes and Tyrone Wheatley.

Edge: Holmes and Wheatley, barely

Analysis: Holmes should have a bonanza against the Vikings defense, in a game that holds a lot of meaning to the Chiefs. Tomlinson should also fare well, though playing in a meaningless game could be a drawback. Jones has become the go-to guy for the Bucs, and if they want to see if they've got a stud for next year, it seems like he'll get plenty of opportunties. Wheatley is part of a three-headed RB beast, which could spell trouble. Fortunately, he's been the most productive of the three, so he could put up decent numbers again. Rick's other options, Bryson and Pittman, are just too risky to gamble with.

Wide Receivers:

Chris Chambers and Marty Booker vs. Terrell Owens and Chad Johnson

Edge: Owens and Johnson

Analysis: Chambers and Booker have been solid plays for the Fasnachts, and could both have big games that could lock up the title. But if ever there was a tandem you'd want in your receiving corps for a Super Bowl, few could top Owens and Johnson. Well, unless you were lucky enough to snag Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison or Torry Holt. WR can be a fickle position though, and both Owens and Johnson have had their 1- and 2-point outings. More than likely, you'll see 30+ points combined from these two receivers.

Tight end:

Tony Gonzalez vs. Todd Heap

Edge: Gonzalez

Analysis: Two guys that often resemble a third receiver, which is exactly what you want going into the Super Bowl. Gonzalez has been more consistent of late, but last week's burst of production for Heap could mean that Anthony Wright has finally clicked with him. This may be a traditionally low-scoring position, but a successful TE could be the difference in this game.

Kicker:

Adam Vinatieri vs. Todd Peterson

Edge: Vinatieri

Analysis: This is an impossible position to truly project, since even the best kicker is at the mercy of his offense. Peterson could be the winner with the recently explosive 49ers offense playing a stingy Eagles defense that could force a high field goal game - provided the Niners keep the score close. Vinatieri on a solid team that does whatever it needs to in order to win, though, seems like the safer bet.

Defense:

Buccaneers vs. Eagles

Edge: Buccaneers

Analysis: Going up against the 49ers without Pro Bowler Troy Vincent could sting their turnover potential and force the Eagles to play a more conservative defense. Smart for the Eagles, potentially bad news for fantasy football. Warren Sapp is a question mark for the Bucs, though, but they seem more likely to overcome his absence. And feating on Michael Vick that day? It could be ugly.

Prediction:

Yeah, like I'm going to stick my neck out on this one! If I say it's Andy, you'll be all, "Oh, you pussy, you're just doing that because you don't want to jinx your team. Let

me know when your balls drop." And if I say it's me, you'll be all, "You magnificent, arrogant bastard. You just love yourself so much that you have to spew it all over me. Your kind makes me want to throw up. I'm so jealous."

So I'm just going to say that if players perform at the level they're capable, it's gonna be close.

But using average scoring from the season provided by RT Sports, it would be:

Andy - 90 ; Rick - 90

It doesn't get much closer than that!

So I averaged out how the starters have performed over the past 3 weeks:

Andy 116 ; Rick - 109

Take that however you wish. But clearly, these are both teams with players performing above their season average. That's exactly what you want entering the biggest game of the year.

Whatever the case, I'll be enjoying the Eagles-49ers game from a luxury box at The Linc, so win or lose, I'm planning on having a great Sunday.

And that it from me, the only reliable source of LEAF fantasy news and analysis you have left. Keep that in mind when you're firing off a response to my wise and insightful comments.

 
*****
 
Rick Reitz is responsible for Cloning Scott Baio. His "LEAF Pile" column appears every three weeks.
 
Next week: Keith Schweigert's "Mop Up" provides his analysis of Week 13 in this space.
 
In two weeks: Steve Seeber chimes in with his "Butcher Shop" thoughts on the league in Week 14. Hopefully.
 
This column is written on alternating weeks by Keith, Steve and Rick.
 
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